Focus Fuel

Focus Fuel

Share this post

Focus Fuel
Focus Fuel
Ghost Pattern: The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
⚑ Paid stuff

Ghost Pattern: The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy

Dave Meier's avatar
Dave Meier
Mar 02, 2024
βˆ™ Paid
3

Share this post

Focus Fuel
Focus Fuel
Ghost Pattern: The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
2
Share

⚑️ Welcome to a πŸ”’ subscriber-only edition πŸ”’ of Focus Fuel. Each week I send a no-BS neuroscience-backed method for founders & high-achievers to maximise their energy & impact. ⚑️


Our brains crave connections, but sometimes we end up connecting dots that don't exist.

Ghost Patterns are a collection of cognitive fallacies and biases. They are illusions which can trick us into believing they're real.

One Ghost Pattern that hijacks our decision-making is The Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy.

Let's dive in:

Seeing Bullseyes in Randomness

A cowboy riddles the side of a barn with random shots.

Later, he paints bullseyes around the closest clusters. It looks like he hit his targets with every single shot. This makes him look like a sharpshooter.

That's the fallacy β€” mistaking random events for meaningful patterns.

In business, this translates to mistaking random fluctuations in sales for significant trends or cherry-picking data to justify our pre-existing beliefs. You might see a rise in website traffic and credit a recent blog post. Or a spike in sales and believe it was your latest marketing tweak.

But was it truly the cause and effect, or just random noise you're mistaking for a bullseye?

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Focus Fuel to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
Β© 2025 Dave Meier
Privacy βˆ™ Terms βˆ™ Collection notice
Start writingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture

Share

Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More